Thinkovation

This is a very quick post but I had do, given my earlier post on Android vs iPhone.Eric Raymond has posted this blog and if I disagreed a little with the earlier blog entry, this one has me really quite irritated.

Essentially :-

• It is silly to equate the PC market with the handset market
• Err… So “Unix” won did it? Now I thought Linux wasn’t Unix….
• So windows was successful because it provided a platform for other people to make money..and Apple has provided a way to help developers make money, and ensures consumers don’t install rubbish on their phones and that’s bad?
• WinMo isn’t comparable to Android – but Java is and that hardly created an exciting apps ecosystem
• Oh and Symbian is open sourced because its backers know it’s dead

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Glyn Moody tweeted about this blog post by Peter Wayner of  Infoworld. I’d encourage you to read the blog entry, it’s a typically well written and well positioned post. But, I do differ with Peter on a number of points and this is my typically less well written and less well thought out response.

Oh I should add that I am an iPhone fanboy, and proud to be so

So, here’s the short version:-

• iPhone vs Android isn’t coke vs pepsi, it’s coke vs virgin cola
• It’s disingenuous to say that the iPhone is for “Play” and the Android for “Work”
• Today the iPhone strikes a much better balance between the desires of consumers vs developers
• Consumers don’t care about “open” they care about “now”
• Multiple Android distros is BAD for Android, not good
• Flexibility and choice are attractive to developers but often a nightmare for consumers
• Multiple formats and screen sizes represent too much choice
• I’m not sold on “Open Google” in the way that many commentators are
• Its just not clear which will win, but right now iPhone is still well ahead

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Oracle’s recent strategy day presented a union filled with love and romance, but despite the apparent confidence, Oracle’s strategy misses some important points. Jonathan Steel and I spent some time mulling it all over and here’s our initial take.

This post may be read to the strains of the wonderful Ella Fiztgerald singing “There may be trouble ahead”.

Having slogged through the marathon that was the Oracle-Sun announcement day, we’re left with two immediate impressions:
1.They took a heck of a lot of time to say so little
2.Oracle’s back to the future pitch, while nothing like as badly thought out as some people say, just isn’t going to cut it.

If you’re in a hurry, here are the headlines:

• The back to the 60’s mantra is both more and less nuanced than you might think
• But the integrated stack pitch simply isn’t well enough thought out
• There are two killer reasons why the “single stack” pitch fails: Innovation, and Focus
• Ultimately Oracle’s hardware strategy is simply not convincing enough
• Oracle’s software strategy is much more coherent but Sun brings a mixed bag
• The absence of a services story is the elephant in the room

We’ll be thinking, talking and writing in much more detail about this – so if you’re interested in knowing more, drop me a line – gary@bathwick.com

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If you’re in a hurry -

• Employee morale is at a deeply low point across Europe
• This is a far cry from Bill Thomas’s vision of Fun, Impact and Operational Excellence
• It is not to0 late but HP has got to work hard to re-engage with European Employees
• My advice – close the chapter, re-engage, retain some of the old EDS values while blending them with HP’s

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I’m at Lotusphere 2010 in sunny Orlando, Florida. It’s day one, and I’m already having lots of fun. Here’s my take on the main tent session this morning.

If you’re in a hurry;

• Overall the session ticked pretty much all of the boxes
• Guest speaker William Shatner did a nice job of talking about collaboration
• IBM’s approach to partners gets better and better
• IBM understands the value and importance of “Open” – even if there is still plenty to do
• But There wasn’t enough talk about how consumable lotus services are by other apps
• Project Vulcan offers a view into the future of the Lotus offering

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At Lotusphere, the future of RIM has come up in conversation a few times. If you’re in a hurry;-

• RIM isn’t in immediate trouble but the writing is on the wall
• RIM will pay  the price for sitting on its laurels
• RIM’s only USP is the global Data deals it has in place
• Droid phones that are tied to Mobile Networks wont roam the way the Blackberry does but Google and Apple may be able to do some big deals..
• If you’re about to renew a blackberry deal or you’re considering signing up for RIM, then do the data roaming maths

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If you’re busy here’s the summary;

• A good move by IBM
• the acquisition builds on IBM’s portfolio in a number of respects
• Lombardi gains access to IBM’s partner community
• Lombardi’s partners gain access to IBM’s sales channel
• Lombardi’s customers gain too
• But of course there’s overlap…
• To get the most IBM needs to do some hard integration
• The billion dollar question (which came from James Governor) is Lotus Live..

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Sigh.

A security expert has discovered an issue with  flash and security and has announced that people should disable flash in their browsers (although he’s quite happy to embed flv in his own blog):

• This “pseudo-crisis” is not actually about flash – it’s about how sites manage user-uploaded content
• This security expert may as well say “Don’t use the interweb, for there be dragons”
• It is theoretically possible to circumvent the flash origin policy by uploading a malicious flash app to a site
• The solution isn’t to disable Flash, it is to promote good web-app design
• If your site allows user generated content and file uploading you MUST design it with content-exploits in mind
• Adobe has tons of resources focussed on security
• As does PHP..

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HP and 3Com Corporation have announced that HP is going to acquire 3Com at a price of $7.90 per share in cash (valuing 3Com at $2.7 billion).

In a nutshell:

• Of course this move means HP’s competitive position against Cisco is improved significantly
• And yes, Cisco’s postion vs HP is improved by their alliance with EMC
• I think this will be good for Cisco, HP, and end-user organisations
• Will Cisco buy a services company in the next 12 months? Hmm
• There is evidence that we all have a LOT to learn about selling networking stuff
• Some strong commentary from a proper Cisco watcher..

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Canalys has released its Q3 smartphone market data, showing Apple and RIM taking a ton of market share away from Symbian.

Check out detailed information here

Now, I freely admit that I’m an iPhone fan – it’s a rocking phone, wrapped in a business model that is rocking too (for now at least).

But, Canalys seems a little “down” on Droid -

Rather than eating into RIM and Apple’s integrated platform sales, Android appears largely to have cannibalized the use of other free Linux minority platforms and taken the lunch away from Microsoft’s Windows Mobile.

(Pete Cunningham – Canalys)

I think that Pete may well have a point right now – but I expect droid-based phones to put up an increasingly strong showing as time passes. It wont be as quick as supporters of Android like but the ecosystem is still in its very early days.

My wild stab in the dark (and I mean wild stab in the dark) for the next 12 months…

• The number of droid-based phones will grow in number to create the real potential for a world-beathing ecosystem – Provided that droid phone makers don’t rush off in too many directions
• If Apple can negotiate data roaming deals with the leading global mo-telcos then RIM is going to be in big big danger
• Apple needs to be ready to adapt the closed-garden a) for the enterprise and b) for non-commercial apps
• WinMo and Symbian are going to see their share of the market halve.